Just as the nation has become more racially and ethnically diverse, it also has become better educated. That was the case in 2016, and likely will be again in 2018, with Trump flogging issues to rouse his base.
Education and race.
Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, © 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. The electorate is slowly aging: A 52% majority of registered voters are ages 50 and older; in both 1996 and 2004, majorities of voters were younger than 50. In Florida, the GOP deficit is now less than 230,000 registered voters after being nearly 660,000 in October 2008. As a result of these contrasting trends, there is now a 19-point gap in the shares who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party between white voters with a college degree and those without one (54% vs. 35%). Altogether, there are 10 states with more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans. Generation continues to be a dividing line in American politics, with Millennials more likely than older generations to associate with the Democratic Party. The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Among men, the GOP has an advantage among Gen Xers, Baby Boomers and Silents, but trails the Democratic Party in leaned party affiliation by 4 points among Millennial men. However, the size of the partisan gap by race and ethnicity is wider among older generations than among younger ones. However, the Democratic Party’s standing with Millennials is about the same as it was at earlier points, including 2014. Between 1994 and 2014 the average gender gap in leaned party affiliation was 9 points. In 1994, white men with a college degree were somewhat more likely than those without a college education to identify with or lean toward the GOP (59% to 55%). Image Plummets Internationally as Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly, An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters, leaners tend to vote and have similar views as those who identify, who now constitute a larger share of the population than other cohorts. By contrast, 58% of voters living in rural counties identify with or lean toward the GOP; 35% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. Certainly there are facts that argue that they should be taken with a grain or two of salt. These states are mainly in the Northeast, with a cluster also in the West. The share of Democratic voters who are religiously unaffiliated has approximately doubled over this period (from 18% to 38%). And the growing racial and ethnic diversity of the overall electorate has resulted in a more substantial change in the composition of the Democratic Party than in the GOP: Four-in-ten Democratic registered voters are now nonwhite (black, Hispanic, Asian and other nonwhite racial groups), compared with 17% of the GOP. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown.
By contrast, men and women with a college degree are significantly more Democratic in their orientation than 25 years ago. Gen Xers and Baby Boomers are closely divided in their partisan leanings.
Voters who attend religious services more frequently are generally more likely than those who attend less often to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Looking at the electorate through a generational lens, Millennials (ages 24 to 39 in 2020), who now constitute a larger share of the population than other cohorts, also are more Democratic leaning than older generations: 54% of Millennials identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, while 38% identify with or lean to the GOP. The changing composition of the electorate and partisan coalitions. However, English-speaking Asian American voters have shifted toward the Democratic Party. (Data on religious affiliation dates to 2008; prior to that, Pew Research Center asked a different question about religious affiliation that is not directly comparable to its current measure.). Some states fold in active with inactive voters to produce one grand total. In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? In addition, there are six states where there is an independent plurality but Democrats outnumber Republicans, and four states where independents are on top of the registration totals but Republicans outnumber Democrats. In the other 10 states, there are more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans, with Democrats out-registering the Republicans in six of these states and the GOP with more voters than the Democrats in the other four. Voter Registration Statistics; Voter Registration Reportsxlsx; Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation; Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation. The July 2018 data were compiled by the author from party registration numbers posted on state election websites (see Sources note for Map 1 and Table 1). The broader trends in leaned party affiliation by gender and education can be seen among white voters. The gender gap. For this analysis, we used annual totals of data from Pew Research Center telephone surveys among registered voters. Miles Coleman. Women voters with a college degree are 17 points more likely to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than they were 25 years ago, while there has been a 10-point increase among men with a college degree. The Republican Party holds an advantage among white voters in older generations. All rights reserved. Zero percent (0%) indicates less than 0.5%. Among other religious groups, there is little relationship between religious attendance and partisanship. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main Edited by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. The current balance of leaned party identification is similar to where it stood in 2016 – when 48% of voters identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic and 44% identified with or leaned toward the GOP – and in 2012 (also 48% Democratic, 44% Republican). As recently as 2007, white voters without a college degree were about evenly divided in their leaned party affiliation. White evangelical Protestants have seen one of the largest moves toward the GOP over the past 25 years. The “other” column includes voters registered with third parties. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions.
Across different regions of the country, voters living in urban counties are substantially more likely than those living in rural counties to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. However, there have been notable shifts in leaned party affiliation within generations by gender in recent years. These shifts in partisan preferences have taken place as the educational makeup of all registered voters has undergone change.
For instance, among Millennial voters, women are 12 points more likely than men to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party (60% to 48%).
In particular, white women with a college degree have moved sharply away from the GOP. This group continues to tilt Republican, and the current balance of leaned party identification (56% to 38%) is similar to other points in the recent past. The current gender gap among white college graduates is much wider than the 7-point difference in GOP affiliation between white men and women without a college degree. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while also taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans — a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main Voters living in urban counties and those living in rural counties have grown further apart in their partisan preferences over the last few decades. The Democratic Party has made significant gains among voters with a college degree or more education – a group that leaned toward the GOP 25 years ago. Among Gen X voters, the Democratic Party holds a narrow 48% to 45% advantage in leaned party affiliation.
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