“Florida for years has been described as a 1% state because going back four to five elections, including a couple presidential, the margin of victory for the winner was just 1%. In 2016, 18 percent of Florida voters identified as Hispanic, a proportion close to their demographic makeup in the state (22.5 percent). Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. In March, Trump declared that a major disaster exists in Florida, one of the states hit hardest by the coronavirus. As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point. The name of this state was derived from the Colorado River which was named by the Spanish travelers as Rio Colorado.
For Jewett, Hispanics are perhaps “one of the most interesting demographics” in Florida, which make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. But business shutdowns to help curb the spread of COVID-19 have also led to a rattled economy, which is traditionally one of the most important issues for American voters. “If you look at 2018, yes, were Democrats disappointed in this state? [13] The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the Electoral College and popular vote.
In 2008, Barack Obama bested John McCain in Florida by just 2.8%. by the political process; they are relied upon for electoral victories, but what do they receive in return? That people come to Florida, not so much for the big box stores and the subdivisions and sprawl, they come here for the idea of Florida. But the difference between winning and losing the Sunshine State is often very small. It's grassroots politics 101, straight out of the Obama Florida playbook. The Bertelsmann Foundation North America (BFNA) is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit think tank in Washington, DC with a transatlantic perspective on global challenges. Identifying what they call "turfs" -- pockets of 6,000 to 7,000 voters where they focus hundreds of local volunteers. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the Electoral College, as Democratic nominee Walter Mondale required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, Republican Ronald Reagan still would have won by a large margin. Beijing ICP prepared NO.16065310-3, Swing states: Florida â a vote-rich 2020 election battleground. produced 12 documentary films, and has a slate of three documentaries in development. [1] Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as safe states, as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which they can draw a sufficient share of the electorate. Who are the Florida voters? Except for 1992, when it sided with incumbent George Bush, the state has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1964. The Democratic ticket held its first appearance together last month in Miami. Florida is considered the Mecca of swing states with it’s tantalizing 29 electoral college votes.
Trump said “Let me be v …. Due to the winner-take-all style of the Electoral College, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and partisan media. Roughly two-thirds of Floridians were born in another state. In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the mountain states and Great Plains, such as Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, most of the South, including Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina, as well as Alaska.
While Jewett said there is somewhat of a generational divide, Trump did very well with this group in 2016. It is now the swing state with the most electoral votes, though Texas could soon rival that status as it trends towards the Democrats. In a state of 67 counties and roughly 21 million people, candidates have to pull all they've got to garner support from the different communities. For her part, Clinton seems to be in Florida every day -- on TV. North Florida, which includes the Panhandle region all the way over to northeast Florida where Jacksonville and Duval County is located, is an area of the state that is “most reliably Republican,” Jewett said. And the political culture in each of those media markets is “vastly different,” Jewett said.
“People in restaurants and hotels, people that work at the airport. “It’s often said that Florida’s politics have been imported from every other state, particularly the Midwest and the Northeast, but from a lot of different countries as well, including the Caribbean and Latin America,” MacManus said. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. “Over the last say, two to three to four election cycles, really — it has become a must-do place for Republican candidates to come.”. Florida is known for having a diverse population.
MacManus said the Sunshine State claims “one of the most diverse Black populations,” including African Americans and Caribbean-born populations with an influx from Haiti and Jamaica.
[3], In 2020 FiveThirtyEight updated this analysis noting that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes," with some states (e.g. The rural, conservative regions in the Panhandle were “absolute runaways” in favor of Republican candidates in recent elections, including for Trump in 2016, according to FOX 13 Tampa Bay Political Editor and Chief Investigator Craig Patrick. And who could forget those images of election officials holding punch ballots up to the light to discern what a "dimpled chad" could have meant to the course of a country?
These age groups tend be more liberal on social issues, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, and a growing portion of younger voters are registering as No Party Affiliation voter, she added. While Cuban voters have been largely found in South Florida, many Puerto Rican voters are located in Central Florida — particularly the counties of Orange and Osceola. In 2012, Florida was the only state decided by less than 1%, with Barack Obama besting Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1%. From Liberty City, to the fields of Immokalee, to the Florida panhandle, Swing State Florida immerses in three critical Florida communities that will be influential in swaying the 2020 US election. The Clinton campaign is trying to rewrite the playbook, going after Republican voters. Despite their rules, only once has each state 'split' its electoral votes – in 2008, when Nebraska gave 4 votes to Republican John McCain, and one to Democrat Barack Obama; and in 2016, when one of Maine's congressional districts was won by Donald Trump, and the other district and the state itself were won by Hillary Clinton. “More recently, those voters have been leaning Republican.
But the difference between winning and losing the Sunshine State is often very small. In that sense, it’s a microcosm of the nation,” Patrick added. “The Hispanic vote is critically important in our state.”. As Florida's population increased its number of electoral votes has risen, from 27 to 29 in 2015. The Trump campaign was on the verge of collapse… then the president contracted COVID. Democrats can't be complacent. “I always remind people that polls cannot and never have been able to predict turnout accurately. In September 2019, President Donald Trump changed his primary residence from Manhattan, New York to Palm Beach, Florida, making him the first presidential candidate to identifiy Florida as his home state. Things were so bad after the 2018 surprise double loss that Politico had this to say: This election was supposed to be different. Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. MacManus said another Florida nail-biter isn't out of the question. Race-hustling is still race-hustling even if it comes with a PhD and the air of sophistication. To date, BFNA has produced more than 20 short- and feature-length films which have been This can’t be underscored enough: Democrats are nominating crap candidates. Southeast Florida, however, “is the bedrock of the Democratic party in Florida,” Jewett said. [16] In that election, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president George W. Bush won the Electoral College by only 4 votes. Florida has become one of the most important U.S. swing states over the last several decades. Compounding issues worse for Florida Democrats is Republican Governor DeSantis is enjoying record popularity. But Republicans say the key to Florida isn't going big with TV. According to University of Central Florida Political Science Professor Aubrey Jewett, Florida has had the lowest average margin of victory since 1992. [11][12] However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping-point state.
Likewise, analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing with Colorado and Ohio becoming less competitive, and Georgia and Arizona moving into swing state territory.[5][6][7]. Neither Maine, which is generally considered a Democratic-leaning state, nor Nebraska, typically thought to be safely Republican, would become battlegrounds in the event of a close national race. These are communities used and misused (Susan Stocker/Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images). TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – With 29 electoral votes up for grabs, Florida has long been an important swing state that’s notorious for close calls. In 2018, a year netted 40 House seats for Democrats and seven governorships, Florida didn’t necessarily follow this “blue wave” trend. Coloradans voted for Obama by just over 5 points. The Sunshine State has become one of the most important U.S. swing states over the last several decades.
(CNN)With 29 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest prize of the battleground states. In a state long known for the influence of the Cuban population, the number of Puerto Ricans with less traditional right-leaning politics is growing quickly. FEC commissioner says prepare to wait, Trump says he'd sign off on specific coronavirus relief measures after halting talks, Hurricane Delta makes landfall along Mexican coast; on track to make landfall in Louisiana, Students ditch carpool for sidewalks on 'Walk and Bike to School Day', Texas grand jury indicts Netflix for 'Cuties' film, Florida State University president, wife test positive for COVID-19, Police: Florida woman left 7 children alone for months; kids said they'd rather go to foster care, 12-year-old college student, planning to major in aerospace engineering, Road closed after deep hole opens near Walmart in New Port Richey, Surprise! Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a lead election prognosticator, believes so..
Copyright © 2020 CGTN. For example, many currently Republican states, like Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004. Gone are the days a candidate could only talk about Social Security. "We have a lot of Republicans particularly in south Florida that are not happy with their nominee who we're having conversation with," said Scott Arcenneaux, a senior adviser for Hillary Clinton for America.
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